Global Tech Shifts: AI Hardware Manufacturing and Memory Industry Developments
As is customary in the high-tech manufacturing world, the recent developments suggest modifications in AI hardware manufacturing and the memory industry on a global scale. These are the current significant developments.
AI Chip Progress Potentially Faces Snags: A Vital Material In Short Supply
Envision the creation of the strongest AI accelerators, the ones that keep research and services blade-sharp. Much of this magic happens under advanced packaging techniques, like that of TSMC CoWoS, wherein multiple chiplets are stacked together to achieve wonderful performance. Combine with NVIDIA's powerful AI hardware – the CoWoS is a cardinal reason why it is that powerful.
What seems to be a very dear ingredient in this advanced packaging recipe is probably going to get rarer from now on. Reports suggest that Asahi KASEI – a Japanese supplier of photosensitive polyimide (PSPI) – a key material for these packaging technologies – is considering downgrading its supply list. The reason is straightforward: Simply put, the demand is overwhelming and the production is being kept on its toes.
This is more than some sort of inconvenience. Should that poor supply result in delays for PSPI-dependent customers, it will undoubtedly have a downgrade effect on the AI supply chain. Companies like NVIDIA might have to change their timelines, if not their pricing situation, on an industry-wide scale.
The Impact on TSMC
The paramount concern is how TSMC as a major chip manufacturer and a customer of CoWoS will be affected. Asahi KASEI, reportedly a very important supplier for TSMC, together with TSMC's long-established relationship with the supplier, might place TSMC in the front of the line for the available PSPI. Should this happen, other advanced packaging players, including giants like Samsung or Intel, could face the brunt. While they might not be the primary suppliers for every AI product, any disruption of their operations could result in a delay of some AI-related hardware.
NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, has previously stressed how vital TSMC's CoWoS is, and there is really no alternative. This strong reliance on TSMC means the Taiwanese giant's moves to operate itself through any supply chain hiccup will be keenly watched, especially with AI demand rocketing.
China's Memory Giant, CXMT, Aims to Flood the Market with DDR5
In another completely different part of the tech world, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) from China is attempting to disturb the DRAM market somewhat. It can be seen that the growth of self-sufficiency and autonomous technological growth in China has met with unbelievably rapid growth in many pursuits, and memory hasn't been excluded from that.
CXMT is reported to be preparing to very considerably increase its domestic production of DDR5 memory modules. And that would be very important, as DDR5 is what is said to be the global standard for RAM in modern computers. This is said to involve ending DDR4 manufacture in favor of DDR5 and declaring DDR4 end-of-life in early 2025.
If this plan succeeds, it would be a massive ambition, with enterprise targets for production capacity being set in the realm of 280,000 wafers per month by late 2025. If achieved, that could be about 15% of global DRAM production – a significant share, in case of a memory company that has had some impediments to accessing certain manufacturing technologies, compared to foreign rivals.
Growing Pains For A Rising Star
CXMT DDR5 production may still be in the baby stage, notwithstanding these lofty ambitions. Current samples reportedly have yield-rate problems. Supposedly, during sampling in the first quarter of 2025, CXMT did not qualify as a domestic memory vendor and sought South Korean alternatives. One potential issue is said to be temperature-related performance instability, which could hinder the product's chances of acceptance in the open consumer market.
Nonetheless, CXMT is purportedly expected to work through these challenges and make significant headway before the end of the year. There are whispers about some "high-end" HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) effort being worked on by CXMT beyond DDR5, possibly HBM3. That has much significance in the framing of the AI story, particularly if Huawei were to secure steady HBM3 supplies from CXMT; that could radically change the AI picture.
