Jefferies Cautious on NVIDIA's $200B Revenue Target for 2025

Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis expresses caution about Wall Street's optimistic revenue projections for NVIDIA in 2025.

Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis has expressed caution regarding Wall Street's optimistic revenue projections for NVIDIA in 2025, suggesting that the $200 billion target is based on "overly aggressive ASPs (Average Selling Prices)."

Jefferies Cautious on NVIDIA's $200B Revenue Target for 2025

While Curtis anticipates NVIDIA will continue its trend of exceeding expectations, he believes that Wall Street's estimates for 2025, ranging from $200 billion in revenue and $5 EPS to $6 EPS, may be overstated.

"While we are positive on unit upside, many of these estimates might be assuming overly aggressive ASPs, stemming from misconceptions that NVDA would sell entire racks for the GB200 NVL."

Curtis projects NVIDIA to ship approximately 6 million GPUs in 2025, leading to data center revenue closer to $180-200 billion, which is lower than the $205-215 billion range anticipated by others.

Despite his cautious outlook, Curtis maintains a 'Buy' rating for NVIDIA stock with a price target of $185 per share, up from $150.

"Blackwell is starting to ramp, with a 'few billion' this quarter and further growth as small volumes of the GB200 layer in next quarter. Hopper is still growing during this transition as prior deployments are filled out. We raise our estimates to reflect our updated expectations for the Blackwell ramp."

NVIDIA's stock is currently down around 2 percent, but year-to-date, it has seen an impressive 200 percent increase.

This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

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